نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم گیاهی، دانشکده زیستشناسی، دانشکدگان علوم، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 فارغالتحصیل کاردانی، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران
4 فارغالتحصیل کارشناسی، گروه گیاهان دارویی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران
چکیده
سابقه و هدف: تغییرات اقلیمی، تنوع زیستی و پراکنش گونههای گیاهی را به شدت تهدید میکند. پیاز یزدی (Allium jesdianum)، یکی از گونههای دارویی ارزشمند در رشتهکوههای زاگرس ایران است که جمعیت آن به دلیل تغییرات اقلیمی و برداشت بیرویه آسیب دیده است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی مهمترین عوامل محیطی مؤثر بر پراکنش این گونه و پیشبینی تأثیر سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بر زیستگاههای آینده آن انجام شد.
مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه از مدلسازی حداکثر آنتروپی (MaxEnt) برای پیشبینی توزیع جغرافیایی پیازیزدی استفاده شد. دادههای حضور گونه به همراه مجموعهای از متغیرهای زیستاقلیمی، خاکی و توپوگرافی استفاده شدند. تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر پراکنش گونه تحت دو سناریوی نیمهخوشبینانه (RCP 4.5) و بدبینانه (RCP 8.5) برای سالهای ۲۰۵۰ و ۲۰۷۰ ارزیابی گردید.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد که براساس شاخص درصد مشارکت متغیرهای ارتفاع (55.4%)، بارندگی خشکترین ماه (15.6%) و چگالی خاک سطحی (13.1%) مهمترین عوامل تعیینکننده پراکنش گونه هستند. مدل با عملکرد عالی (0.9 = AUC) پیشبینی کرد که مساحت زیستگاههای مطلوب این گونه در سناریوهای آینده بین ۱۴ تا ۲۳ درصد کاهش خواهد یافت که بیشترین کاهش در سناریوی بدبینانه رخ میدهد. همچنین، پیشبینی میشود که زیستگاههای مناسب به سمت عرضهای جغرافیایی بالاتر (۳۳ تا ۳۸ درجه شمالی) جابجا شوند، در حالی که مطلوبیت در عرضهای پایینتر کاهش مییابد.
نتیجهگیری: نتایج این مطالعه بر لزوم اتخاذ رویکردهای حفاظتی فوری برای پیازیزدی تأکید دارد. پیشنهاد میشود مناطق مناسب فعلی و آینده برای حفاظت درونرویشگاهی (In-situ) و کشت و بهرهبرداری پایدار از این گونه ارزشمند شناسایی و مدیریت شوند.
کلیدواژهها
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