نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
سابقه و هدف: تغییر اقلیم با تنشهای حرارتی و رطوبتی فزاینده، کشاورزی را به سمت کشت گیاهان مقاوم سوق داده است. گلمحمدی با سازگاری بالا به شرایط محیطی متغیر، ظرفیت ایفای نقش محوری را در دشتهای متأثر از تغییر اقلیم داراست. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی امکانسنجی اقتصادی کشت گلمحمدی بهعنوان راهکاری برای کاهش آثار زیانبار تغییرات اقلیمی در دشت همدان - بهار، منطقهای بهشدت تحت تأثیر این پدیده در دهههای اخیر، طراحی و اجرا شده است. نتایج این پژوهش میتواند راهنمایی برای اتخاذ راهبردهای سازگارانه در بخش کشاورزی مناطق مشابه ارائه دهد.
مواد و روشها: در این پژوهش، ابتدا تغییرات آینده پارامترهای اقلیمی (دما و بارش) در دشت همدان - بهار تحت سناریوهای مختلف تغییر اقلیم پیشنگری شد. برای این منظور، از دادههای اقلیمی بلندمدت منطقه و مدلهای پیشنگری اقلیمی معتبر استفاده گردید. سپس، عملکرد گیاه گلمحمدی در شرایط اقلیمی محتمل آینده با بهرهگیری از مدلهای شبیهساز رشد محصول که قادر به ارزیابی تأثیرات دما و رطوبت بر عملکرد گیاهان هستند، برآورد گردید. در ادامه، نتایج حاصل از پیشنگریهای اقلیمی و شبیهسازی رشد محصول در یک چارچوب اقتصادی تلفیق شد. این چارچوب اقتصادی شامل تحلیل سودآوری کشت گلمحمدی در مقایسه با سایر محصولات رایج در الگوی کشت منطقه و ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر سود خالص بخش کشاورزی بود. تحلیل اقتصادی با در نظر گرفتن هزینههای تولید، قیمت فروش محصول و عملکرد پیشنگری شده انجام شد تا امکانسنجی اقتصادی و پتانسیل جبران خسارتهای ناشی از تغییر اقلیم از طریق کشت گلمحمدی ارزیابی شود.
یافتهها: نتایج پیشنگری تغییرات اقلیمی در دشت همدان - بهار نشان داد که در دهههای آینده، دما روندی افزایشی و میزان بارش روندی کاهشی خواهد داشت. در مقابل، نتایج شبیهسازی عملکرد محصول نشان داد که گیاه گلمحمدی، بهدلیل مقاومت به تغییرات آبوهوایی و تنشهای محیطی، عملکرد بهتری نسبت به سایر محصولات آببر رایج در منطقه در شرایط اقلیمی متغیر از خود نشان میدهد. از منظر اقتصادی، افزایش عملکرد نسبی گلمحمدی در آینده منجر به افزایش سهم این گیاه در الگوی کشت بهینه منطقه خواهد شد. براساس تحلیلهای اقتصادی انجام شده، این تغییر در الگوی کشت و افزایش تولید گلمحمدی قادر خواهد بود تا بخشی از خسارت اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیم بر عملکرد سایر گیاهان زراعی را جبران نموده و سود خالص بخش کشاورزی منطقه را به میزان تقریبی 17.091 میلیارد تومان افزایش دهد.
نتیجهگیری: نتایج این پژوهش حکایت از آن دارد که گسترش کشت گیاه دارویی گلمحمدی بهعنوان یک راهکار مؤثر برای سازگاری با پدیده تغییر اقلیم در دشت همدان - بهار قابلتوصیه است. این گیاه علاوه بر نشان دادن رشد مطلوب و عملکرد پایدار در شرایط نامساعد آبوهوایی پیشنگری شده، از نظر اقتصادی نیز سودآور بوده و پتانسیل جبران بخشی از خسارتهای اقتصادی وارده به بخش کشاورزی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی را داراست؛ بنابراین، ترویج کشت گلمحمدی میتواند به عنوان یک راهبرد مهم در راستای توسعه پایدار کشاورزی و کاهش آسیبپذیری اقتصادی مناطق مشابه مورد توجه قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژهها
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