Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Tarbiat Modares University Faculty of Agriculture
Abstract
Background and objectives: The cultivation of crops resilient to thermal and moisture stresses is a recognized strategy for adapting to climate change. In this context, Rosa damascena (Damask rose), with its notable ability to adapt to diverse environmental conditions, presents a potential solution for climate change-affected plains. This study was designed and conducted to investigate the economic feasibility of cultivating this crop to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change in the Hamadan-Bahar plain, a region significantly impacted by this phenomenon, particularly in recent decades. The findings aim to provide guidance for adopting adaptive strategies in the agricultural sector of similar regions.
Methodology: In this research, future changes in climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) in the Hamadan-Bahar plain under various climate change scenarios were initially projected. For this purpose, long-term regional climate data and reputable climate prediction models were utilized. Subsequently, the performance of Rosa damascena under anticipated future climatic conditions was estimated using crop growth simulation models capable of assessing the impacts of temperature and moisture on plant yield. Following this, the results of climate projections and crop growth simulations were integrated within an economic framework. This framework encompassed an analysis of the profitability of Rosa damascena cultivation compared to other prevalent crops in the region's cropping pattern and an evaluation of the impact of climate change on the net profit of the agricultural sector. The economic analysis considered production costs, product selling prices, and projected yields to assess economic viability and the potential to offset climate change-induced losses through Rosa damascena cultivation.
Results: The results of the climate change projections for the Hamadan-Bahar plain indicated an increasing trend in temperature and a decreasing trend in precipitation in the coming decades. Conversely, the crop performance simulation results demonstrated that Rosa damascena, due to its inherent resistance to climatic variations and environmental stresses, exhibited superior performance compared to other common water-intensive crops in the region under altered climatic conditions. From an economic perspective, the relative increase in Rosa damascena yield in the future is expected to lead to an increased share of this crop in the optimal cropping pattern of the region. The economic analyses conducted revealed that this shift in cropping pattern and the enhanced production of Rosa damascena have the potential to offset a portion of the economic losses resulting from climate change impacts on other agricultural crops, increasing the net profit of the region's agricultural sector by approximately 17.091 billion Iranian Rial (IRR).
Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that expanding the cultivation of the medicinal plant Rosa damascena is a recommendable strategy for adapting to climate change in the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In addition to exhibiting favorable growth and stable performance under the anticipated adverse climatic conditions, this crop is economically profitable and possesses the potential to compensate for a portion of the economic losses incurred by the agricultural sector due to climate change. Therefore, promoting the cultivation of Rosa damascena can serve as a significant strategy towards sustainable agricultural development and reducing the economic vulnerability of similar regions.
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